THE Roman Catholic Church Archbishop of Dar es Salaam, Polycarp Cardinal Pengo, has warned that assertions by two of the world's leading health organizations suggesting that the HIV/AIDS pandemic is officially in decline are premature.

In a message issued yesterday ahead of the World AIDS Day tomorrow (December 1), Cardinal Pengo dismissed a recent announcement by the Joint United Nations program on HIV/AIDS (UNAids) and the World Health Organization that the HIV pandemic which started 28 years ago is receding.

“We plead for sustained support to meet the needs of many. Assistance is as sorely needed as ever. HIV and AIDS have not gone away - despite premature impressions to the contrary,” said Pengo, who is president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM).

He continued: “The assumption that treatment is now available to everyone is false. Only a third of those who need treatment get it and, after two years, only 60 per cent are still on treatment. For every two people on treatment, five are newly infected.”

“Globally new HIV infections are still outnumbering those going on treatment and those dying of AIDS. The number of orphans, abused, vulnerable and infected children continues to grow exponentially. Stigma remains a powerful enemy.”

Cardinal Pengo lamented that "official concerns about the pandemic are receding" and exclaimed: "The Body of Christ has AIDS, and [we] express our pastoral determination as a Family of God to provide fitting responses. For our continent is still the worst-afflicted."

The bishops' message noted that it is false to presume "treatment (for HIV/AIDS) is now available to everyone."

Cardinal Pengo had a poignant invitation for young Africans, stating: "We address ourselves particularly to our youth, in whom we firmly believe. Let no one deceive you into thinking that you cannot control yourself. Abstinence is the best protection. For those who are not married, it is also the only moral course of action.”

He noted that millions of Africans are badly affected by the pandemic as AIDS continues to ravage the continent's population “even if it is slipping down the agenda of governments, civil society and international organizations.”

He said although anti-retroviral treatment (ART) requires a lifelong commitment to staying on the drugs, in sub-Saharan Africa a good number of ART patients stop taking their medicines within two years because they can't afford the regular transport costs to the hospital or don't have access to sufficient food to make drug adherence possible.

“This pandemic gravely compromises development and justice. The global recession and economic downturn have a detrimental impact on our brothers and sisters infected and affected by HIV and AIDS,” said Pengo.

He added that climbing prices of food and other basic necessities are hampering progress of treatment, because people cannot afford the food essential to support their medication. “Further, increased hunger and desperation are making people resort to sex as a means of survival. So any response that attempts to tackle HIV and AIDS in isolation is doomed to fail.”

“For the tide to turn, the impact of all contributing factors must be recognized and tackled holistically: Wars; fragile or failing states; inequality between men and women; the ravages of climate change and many more. All these make the poor even poorer, more dispossessed, more vulnerable to HIV and, if infected, more likely to develop AIDS”.

He insisted that HIV/AIDS is not just a medical problem and that investing in pharmaceuticals alone will not work.

Cardinal Pengo's statement challenges a new report by UNAids and WHO, which suggests that AIDS infections have fallen by more than 30 per cent worldwide.

According to the annual update on the pandemic for 2009, published recently by the two organizations, the number of new HIV infections peaked in the mid-1990s and has since declined by almost a third.

It is the first time that UNAids and WHO have categorically stated that the pandemic is on a downward trend, and represents a landmark in the history of the disease.

In their 2008 report, they said suggestions the epidemic had peaked were "speculation", and that it was "difficult to predict the epidemic's future course".

That report warned: "The HIV epidemic has repeatedly defied predictions...HIV is likely to have additional surprises in store that the world must be prepared to address."

But the 2009 update throws scientific caution to the winds and instead states clearly that the pandemic has passed its zenith: "The latest epidemiological data indicate that globally the spread of HIV appears to have peaked in 1996, when 3.5 million new infections occurred. In 2008 the estimated number of new HIV infections was approximately 30 per cent lower than at the epidemic's peak 12 years earlier."

It says that in sub-Saharan Africa – the worst-affected region – new infections in 2008 were "approximately 25 per cent lower than at the epidemic's peak in the region in 1995".

Despite the fall in new infections, the number of people living with HIV increased last year to 33.4 million, as people are surviving longer with the roll-out of anti-retroviral drug treatment. Greater access to drugs has helped cut the death toll by 10 per cent over the past five years.

There are now 4 million people on the drugs worldwide, a 10-fold increase in five years. The report says 2.9 million lives have been saved since effective treatment became available in 1996, but less than half the patients who need them are currently getting them.

The reasons for the decline in new infections are disputed. UNAids said prevention programmes involving sex education, HIV awareness campaigns and distributing condoms have had an impact. But critics say the pandemic was already in decline before the prevention programmes were widely implemented and the disease was burning itself out.

The rate of HIV/AIDS new infection and prevalence in Tanzania has dropped to 5.7 per cent in 2007/2008, from 7 per cent in 2003/2004, according to figures released by the Tanzania HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey 2007/2008.

According to the United Nations, there are 1.4 million people infected with HIV and AIDS in Tanzania.